Investment

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Oil Stocks are Soaring: Is it a Warning for the Economy

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The S&P 500 has struggled so far in 2022, but a combination of energy shortages, booming reopening demand, inflation, and geopolitical unrest has oil prices trading at multi-year highs. Oil stocks like Exxon Mobil ($XOM@US) and Marathon ($MPC@US) are among the market’s best performers year-to-date, and eight out of the 10 best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 are oil and gas stocks. Reopening demand from the global economy has been a contributing factor, and the drop-off in cases of the Omicron variant could mean that travel demand will see a big jump as spring and summer near. Of course, the conflict in Ukraine is another factor that has pushed crude oil prices above $90 per barrel for the first time since 2014. Russia is the world’s second-largest oil producer, and sanctions on Russia could create a major supply chain imbalance. DataTrek Research recently noted that oil shocks have caused more U.S. economic recession in the past 50 years than any other catalyst. Investors may remember that crude oil prices spiked as high as $140 per barrel prior to the economic crisis in 2008. For now, oil prices seem to be in a sweet spot. Investors should continue to monitor the situation, especially if oil prices cross over the $100 level.

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